The Macau gaming sector is riding a wave of momentum predicted to continue through August.

Seaport Research Partners analyst Vitaly Umansky expects gross gaming revenue for the month to rise 14.8% year-on-year, an increase of 2.5% month-on-month.

After a lacklustre first quarter, casinos in the city posted GGR of MOP$21.19 billion (US$2.62 billion) in May, up 5% year-on-year and 12.4% over April. It was the best month since borders reopened in January 2023.

June was a winner too, with GGR of MOP$21.06 billion, up 19% year-on-year. July came in at MOP$22.13 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year and 19% month-on-month, for the highest monthly figure of the year.

Among other factors, Umansky cited “increased marketing and improving China consumer sentiment, coupled with stronger higher-quality average visitation into Macau”. He also credited a strong entertainment calendar.

“August this year has more concerts and events than last year (as was also the case in June and July),” he wrote. “Visitation growth remains robust and spend per visitor is improving, so August growth could come in better than we currently forecast.”

If the upswing persists, casinos could enjoy “a stronger base mass recovery with continued premium growth later this year and in 2026”, he added.

Why US-China trade deal matters

Morgan Stanley is just as optimistic. The brokerage has raised its yearly GGR forecast to MOP$248.96 billion, up 10% year-on-year and twice its earlier estimate of 5%. That figure would also beat the local government’s cautious forecast of MOP$228 billion.

According to Macao News, Morgan Stanley analysts tied the outlook to a spike in tourism from Mainland China (up 25% year-on-year in the second quarter), prompted by relaxed visa rules. It also noted the drawing power of entertainers like Jacky Cheung. In June, when the Cantopop crooner opened at Galaxy Macau, Citi analysts noted a 16% increase in premium players and a 36% increase in the the average wager.

Morgan Stanley also credited new junkets – five more gaming promoters launched in May – and a stronger yuan.

Umansky said a US-China trade deal could further boost consumer confidence and loosen travellers’ pursestrings. But if no agreement is reached by a 12 August deadline, tariffs could “boomerang” back to higher levels, said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

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