A few days before the Super Bowl, the biggest betting event of the year, the NFL suggests it’s experiencing a shift in sentiment about prediction markets.

Enhanced fan engagement, a key reason the NFL has embraced regulated sports betting, piques the league’s interest.

“There’s no question that we’re going to be spending a lot of time talking about this in the coming months, and maybe even years,” NFL Executive VP Jeff Miller told Front Office Sports this week in San Francisco, site of Super Bowl 60 between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots.

While prediction markets wade their way through regulatory and legal muck, Miller said, “It isn’t just about anticipating the worst. It is a fan engagement tool, there’s no question around that, and that’s been good for the league.”

NFL’s Prediction Market Principles

As football has driven the bulk of action on the platforms over the past year, the NFL has kept its distance from prediction markets.

Miller stressed the league’s principles have not changed.

In written testimony to Congress in December, he voiced the league’s concerns about financial exchanges some believe are just sportsbooks in a different wrapper.

“We are particularly troubled that several sports-related futures contracts have been launched nationwide, including in jurisdictions where sports betting has not been legalized,” Miller wrote to the House Committee on Agriculture for a CFTC hearing on prediction markets. “These contracts fall outside the purview of state regulatory authorities and the safeguards they impose upon the industry.”

Earlier in December, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said of prediction markets, “That’s not something we’re about to enter into. We are going to see how things play out …”

Things are playing out, and with the CFTC’s recent policy changes under new head Mike Selig, regulatory waters are warming. The NFL may want to take a swim.

Related: Trump administration’s prediction market stance has familiar feel

Chris Christie Holds Out Hope

Chris Christie — who, as governor of New Jersey, championed the overturning of PASPA — appeared on CBS News this week to push back on the proliferation of prediction markets.

Responding to Miller’s comments in San Francisco, Christie pointed out that the NFL is blocking prediction market brands from advertising on NBC’s broadcast of Sunday’s Super Bowl.

“I don’t think the big boss [Goodell] is yet sold on this issue,” Christie said optimistically.

Asked by CBS host Major Garrett if he was nervous, Christie, a strategic advisor to the American Gaming Association, acknowledged, “I’m always nervous, Major.”

Putting Kalshi Downloads in Perspective

The NFL season heated up with the playoffs last month; so did interest in Kalshi. 

The Kalshi app achieved 3 million downloads in January, more than four times those of DraftKings or FanDuel. In fact, that’s even more than either sportsbook has ever seen, per Apptopia data cited by Bloomberg.

Downloads, though, don’t necessarily equate to betting handle, or, in prediction market terms, trading volume. Also, since people who bet on sports probably already have the FanDuel and DraftKings apps on their phones, it’s not surprising to see more current downloads for different platforms. 

A fair number of users are downloading prediction market apps out of curiosity.

“They might make a bet, they might not, and they never go back to this again because that’s not what they do,” Citizens analyst Jordan Bender told Gambling Insider recently. “Sports bettors will bet on sports [and more likely on sportsbook apps long term]; non-sports bettors will not stick around.”

Still, the recent data on Kalshi is impressive.

“Three million downloads in a single month is a feat that no other sportsbook app, real money gaming app, or fantasy sports app has ever hit in the United States,” Apptopia’s Tom Grant told Bloomberg.

Kalshi & Venmo

While they’re not allowed to advertise on the national broadcast of the game, prediction markets are doing what they can to market around the Super Bowl.

Kalshi, for example, is using the event as a launch point for its new partnership with Venmo as a method to fund accounts.

More Warnings From States

With the Super Bowl heightening awareness and interest in prediction markets come warnings about their perils.

On Thursday, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes joined New York AG Letitia James in cautioning the states’ residents.

In her statement, Mayes lumps prediction markets in with “sports betting scams.”

“This Super Bowl Sunday, I urge Arizonans to educate themselves to avoid a sports betting scam and protect themselves from unregulated operations,” Mayes implores. “And remember, in Arizona you must be 21 or older to gamble.”

Most prediction markets allow users as young as 18 access to their platforms.

“Prediction markets may appear similar to regulated gaming operations, but in reality they lack protections or guardrails,” the release states.

 

 

 

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