Kazakhstan-based international trading platform ITS has introduced Prediction Market, launching event-based contracts under the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) regulatory structure. The platform allows eligible investors to trade the probability of specific financial and macroeconomic outcomes rather than taking positions solely on asset price movements.

Operational & Structure Overview

Unlike consumer betting platforms, Kazakhstan is positioning prediction contracts strictly within a capital markets framework. The initial four contracts allow positions on defined scenarios involving Bitcoin, SpaceX, the base rate of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, and the U.S. Federal Reserve target rate.

Contracts operate on a fully funded basis with binary payouts scaled between $0.01 and $0.99 prior to settlement, settling at $1.00 or $0.00, while strictly prohibiting leverage or margin trading. Launched on September 8, 2026, at the ITS Ideas conference in Astana, the contracts are being tested through the Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA) FinTech Lab sandbox. Trading is currently restricted to eligible professional and semi-professional institutional or accredited clients.

Strategic Significance for Regional Markets

While global platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi navigate varying regulatory challenges at the intersection of gambling and finance, the AIFC framework seeks to establish Astana as a regulated venue for event-based derivatives across Central Asia. By developing these contracts within a institutional trading facility rather than a standalone wagering service, Kazakhstan is building a structured methodology for classification, risk management, and market oversight.

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