The lack of news surrounding the postponement of the working groups that were due to start examining online casino regulation in France in January continues to baffle industry observers and lead them to wonder whether the government will ever make a positive decision on the issue.

For all the doubt however, the lack of news doesn’t mean inactivity behind the scenes. Indeed, suppliers and consultants are busy talking to operators about platforms, product development or staffing, and to legislators about the benefits that France could glean from regulating the vertical.

As one industry contact told G&Co, the government has “not restarted the consultations, but discussions on legalising online casino continues, at different levels and pace, and with local stakeholders”. “We strongly support regulated markets and will always engage wherever we can to share regulatory best practices and technical acumen,” they added.

 

The arguments for regulation are well-known

 

Fifteen years after it regulated online sports betting and poker, France is the last major western European market to not have legal online casinos. It has developed a strong, but heavily-taxed (nearly 60% of GGR from this July) and restrictive OSB market (i.e. RTP is set at 85%) when compared with countries like the UK, Spain or Italy; and legal iCasino would enable operators to balance out high OSB taxes with casino revenues.

The lack of a legal online casino market has also been a major boon for illegal operators, who now make huge profits in a market that is said to be worth at least €2bn.

 

The arguments against are also well-known

 

Opening the market would expose players to harder forms of gambling and present an economic risk to the country’s 202 land-based casinos, with trade body Casinos de France estimating that a legal online market would lead to a 20-30% drop in land-based casino revenues.

Despite all this, most parties also agree that the situation needs resolving. The illegal market means millions of customers playing without any consumer protection or safer gambling frameworks in place, while the government loses out on millions of euros worth of taxes. But the eventual regulatory format of a legal online casino market is the sticking point.

Key players

AFJEL, the trade group for online operators, has long called for an open model of regulation such as the one set out by Michel Barnier last October. French casinos, via CdF, are reluctant but they are not completely opposed to the prospect of regulation. But, if it did happen, they would demand a US-style model of tethering online operators to land-based establishments and guaranteed financial returns from digital operators.

In many ways however, the key player in the debate is Française des Jeux. It generated revenues of €6.6bn in 2023, making up half of €13.5bn generated by the market. It also paid out €4.2bn in taxes to the French state, which, despite repeated denials as to its level of influence, gives it clout whenever the government assesses new products or laws.

No one knows how the situation will play out, but if CDF’s JADE project, or a version thereof, were to be approved, it would give French operators a period of relative calm during which they could refine their strategies and build up share. It could also lead to a wave of M&A, with, for example, the likes of FDJ acquiring a casino group.

However, it’s worth pointing out that FDJ currently enjoys a monopoly on digital instant games and scratchcards, which is another reason why it might not be in a rush to see online casino regulated.

 

Need for revenues

 

One constant however has been France’s need for extra revenues. Its debt levels were already alarming at the end of 2024, but its economic outlook for 2025 has worsened and the tariff uncertainty Donald Trump has set in motion has made a bad situation worse. The government has said it is looking to push through further savings of €5bn and is due to hold a conference on public finances on 15 April.

The online casino amendment announced in October stated that the government was expecting to recoup around €1bn in taxes from the activity. But if revenues are the aim, an open model of regulation, where any company that meets the regulatory criteria is eligible for a licence, would likely generate more volumes and tax revenues than CDF’s proposed model.

But as shown by the pushback it organised against October’s amendment, CDF has political clout. Still, the government could decide to override the trade group’s objections, although that could lead to serious rifts between MPs, mayors and the government.

The terms and conditions of JONUMs, the digital assets activated in the form of NFT cards in fantasy betting leagues, are also set to be approved by the relevant ministries in the coming weeks.

But with presidential elections due in 2027, the only realistic window for regulation will likely run until the end of 2026.

 

 

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