Prediction market platform Polymarket has declined to settle $10.5m worth of bets on a US invasion of Venezuela, ruling that the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro does not meet the contract's criteria.
 

Key points

• Polymarket declined to settle invasion-related Venezuela bets despite Maduro’s capture
• Traders wagered more than $10.5m on the disputed contracts
• The incident has prompted renewed political and regulatory scrutiny
   

Prediction market platform Polymarket has come under criticism from users after declining to settle bets linked to a US invasion of Venezuela, despite the capture of former president Nicolás Maduro by US forces earlier this month. 

The decision has affected wagers totalling more than $10.5m, with some traders accusing the platform of inconsistent market resolution.

The disputed contracts centred on whether the US would invade Venezuela by set deadlines in 2026. Following Maduro’s capture on 3 January, several traders initially appeared poised for substantial payouts, including one account that briefly showed unrealised gains of more than $430,000. 

However, Polymarket later clarified that the operation did not meet its definition of an invasion, stating that the contracts referred specifically to “US military operations intended to establish control”. According to the platform, a targeted mission to detain Maduro did not qualify under those terms.

The clarification prompted a sharp repricing of the market, with the implied probability of a January invasion falling below 5%.

Traders have since expressed frustration on Polymarket’s forums, arguing that the definition applied was overly narrow given the scale of US military involvement.
 

The episode has also drawn attention from US lawmakers. Earlier this week, Representative Ritchie Torres introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which seeks to prohibit government employees from trading on prediction markets when they possess, or could reasonably obtain, material nonpublic information. 

The proposal follows reports that a newly created Polymarket account generated more than $400,000 in profits from bets placed shortly before Maduro’s capture was announced.

In total, more than $64m was wagered on Maduro-related outcomes across Polymarket and rival platform Kalshi, intensifying debate around market integrity, insider knowledge and the regulation of event-based betting. 

Source

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